Friday 24 May 2013

Aviva Premiership final preview

The East Midlands derbies have always been fiery affairs, but never have the stakes been so high, and never has the talent of both teams been at the top of it's game when they have played each other. Northampton come into this after an explosive victory over Saracens where forward domination was the name of the game. Leicester marched on after they catalysed the destruction of not-so defending champions Harlequins.

History
As we know history counts for nothing as tomorrow will be a one-off, all guns blazing affair. In the last 7 meetings between these two sides, Leicester have come up trumps, this stat stretching back to September 2010 when Northampton last beat Leicester 27-19, however, none of these wins (or defeats) will matter come 3pm at Twickenham on Saturday, and i'm sure whoever wins this match, it will be their sweetest win against the other midland rival. Only 2 months ago Leicester absolutely wiped the floor with Northampton so it would be all the more ecstatic if the Saints were to beat Tigers at HQ. That thumping will certainly give Northampton and impetus to put one over Leicester in the big match.

Strengths and weaknessess
Front row: Historically, both sides have a big pack, with perhaps Saints having the edge here as Mulipola for Tigers isn't the strongest scrummager at Loosehead prop. What a big miss Ayerza may prove to be. Northampton have Mujati and Tonga'uiha, two huge Southern hemisphere monsters, up against Lion Dan Cole and as previosuly mentioned, Logo Mulipola. And in between them, Lions teamates Tom Youngs, but there will be no love shared I assure you as each man aims to guide their sides to victory, and to provide dominant lineouts for their teams. This battle will be huge. 
Second row: The set- piece battle will be absolutely vital, and two men at the centre of that, are lineout generals Geoff Parling and Christian Day, and they will be trying to outwit one another and steal and retain the ball for their scrum halves to ship it wide. 
Back row: Each side has their fetcher, their carrier, and their grafter. An absolutely key battle will be Samu Manoa vs whoever is tackling him. Manoa is bigger than big, and hits harder than hard. To stop him, Leicester players tackling technique will need to be up to scratch completely, which i'm sure it will be, and they need to stop him offloading if he does break through the gain line. Leicester pose a little less threat with their number 8 Jordan Crane, but the good thing about Crane is that he always sets Leicester onto the front foot, and is willing to tidy up and secure possession when things go pear shaped. Every metre that he gains could be absolutely vital for the Tigers tomorrow. Leicester will be hoping that Salvi can add another few turnovers to his 28 he's got this season. In the last match between theses sides, Salvi wreaked havoc and was vastly superior to opposite number Tom Wood, so Wood will definitely be seeking revenge today. And the grafters: Tom Croft, who has an unbelievably high work ethic, and Dowson, who is very solid in defence and a leader with lots of experience that Saints will truly need tomorrow. Croft also has outstanding lineout ability that will need to come to the fore tomorrow, and gas, he has serious gas, too.
Half backs: This is where the game will be won and lost. Big match temperament are my three key words. Both kickers have been in good form with the boot, but what could provide the edge, is that Flood has been to Twickenham numerous times, but Myler has never played there. The occasion could get to him, we'll see. Ben Youngs has been in inspired form, and he picked up the try of the season award this season for his wonderful solo effort against Bath. But this match won't be about such a spark like that, it will be more about his game management, which has definitely improved this season, and he must get it right. Dickson is the real forward controller, always shouting at his lumps to march on, and if the pitch is wet tomorrow, he'll need to be at his mouthy best to guide his forwards over the line. 
Centres: Both sides have a lump and a footballer. Manu and Burrell will punch holes in the opposition defence and Allen and Wilson will chuck the ball around and use their brains as opposed to their brawn. There isn't too much to say really, both centres will be key in this match to provide their teams with a platform to take the game.
Back three: Both sides have speedsters and sharp, talented players. Tait, Goneva and Morris will go up against Foden, Elliott and K Pisi. Goneva has a tendency to drop passes more often than most, so as a Leicester fan I hope it isn't wet tomorrow! Elliott has been in wonderful try scoring form and his pace could prove vital if Saints are to go on and win it tomorrow. I fell that Leicester have elected to choose Goneva to try and walk over the small figure of Elliott and the poor defence of Ken Pisi. So if Leicester exploit these flaws with two massive ball carriers of Manu and Goneva, it will definitley cause Northampton problems.
Finally, two England full backs who are both climbing up to past form and former heights and Foden's high ball catching is superior to Tait's and neither are mugs in defence. They are definitely two players that could provide that magic break for their respective teams.
In conclusion: 
Key players: Manoa and Croft- both game changers that could turn the game.
Result: Leicester's experience and will power will guide them to a record 10th English title, and they will win by 8 points.

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